Floyd Upperman & Associates Evening HOTpage
Daily Evening HOTpage Report
                  1/14/98

* The Latest Daily Activity Report


CURRENT SHORT POSITIONS: 


NEW SHORT POSITIONS TO INITIATE: 

I'm really tempted to sell coffee in here on this little bit of strength.  The RSI
is diverging lower and the commercials are down near the LCL in coffee.  We did
break hard today, All the way back down to the 45 DMA, but that was a big gap
down on the open.  The market opened up terribly weak.  The market did rally
after the gap down open and closed near the high of the day.  I don't believe this market
is going higher, I believe we will get back down to the 113 level eventually and challenge
those lows and perhaps get all the way back down to the 108-110 congested area.   
Take a look below:


* PLEASE NOTE:  I don't believe coffee is a market for everyone to be trading,
it is a big market and can have big moves.  I consider coffee a higher risk market
for the higher risk well margined and more experienced traders.   Probably best for
most of you new guys and gals just to sit back and observe in here.  You can learn
a great deal from careful observations.  Lets take a quick look at the UCL/LCL COT
graph so we can observe the position the commercials have been taking in coffee.

CURRENT LONG POSITIONS:

HOTpage official Long Position #1:
The HOTpage is long 2 contracts
of March copper from 66.60.  We closed
today at 66.45. Our stop on the position
remains 64.00.  This market continues to
hold up well as other commodities and
the CRB takes it on the chin.  Again, I am
impressed with how the market is holding
up.  I believe we can expect to see higher
prices down the road. Hopefully, soon as well.

HOTpage official Long Position #2:
The HOTpage is long 2 contracts
of March cocoa from 1385.  Pretty
decent entry for us, using the pull back
method to get long was certainly the right thing
to do here.  The market pulled back today
but notice how the 1375-1377 area is
holding up quite well.  Twice we went
down there and tried to break below it
but were unable to do it.  And look at
where we closed, right on the key 10 DMA.
See the significance in this region, the 10 DMA
is a key area of support right now.  I'd like
to see the market get moving now and end
the week over the 18 DMA, that would be
a fabulous signal that this market is indeed
getting ready to move higher.   We will
stay long using our 1355 stop.

NEW LONG POSITIONS TO INITIATE:


SPREADS:
.

OPTIONS:

* We do have a spring Soybean trade coming up in February and March.  This involves the purchase of
out of the money soybean calls and/or bull futures spreads (Long July beans & Short November beans). 
I'll be talking more about this trade as we get closer to spring time in the Mid west.

Swing Trades:

We talked about the potential for Hogs to be pulling back today.  They did just that.   I believe we
are probably building a short term top here in the market (very short term stuff), but if you are
an active and well margined swing trader, you might want to consider more short sales in here.

1/12/98
Lean hogs are setting up for a short-term Swing sell.  Notice how the April hogs backed off today
on the close.  That is a sign that this market is getting tired.

----------------------------------


GENERAL MARKET COMMENTARY:   10/29/03  


STOCK INDEXES:  I want to leave yesterday's update on-line while
I point out something here.  First of all, we knew today was going to be a
very key critical day. Obviously, it was.  We made history today in the
NASDAQ and I tell you, I have never seen anything like that, but that is the
internet stocks and those things are in a big wild and crazy frenzy.  I would
not touch them with a ten foot pole.   Lets talk about the S&P for a minute,
yesterday, I pointed out that the 18 DMA of 1239 was a key area of support
in this market.   Well folks, where did we close?   Take a look at the data if
you don't believe it yourself, we closed right on that number at 1239 even.
We knew the 45 DMA of 1199 was an important area below the 18 DMA and
we managed to stay above that today.  Folks, that is about the last critical
juncture in this market.  If we close below that, look out below.    Now, as
the new daily PIT session settlement prices come on and the old ones go off,
we are going to see the 45 DMA come up.  You want to watch this key
indicator closely.  If we go into a correction, the area to watch is when the
45 DMA and the 18 DMA converge together.  If the market starts to correct
and slips under the 45 DMA, this is going to be the next area to watch.

What do I see for tomorrow?   More volatility and wild fluctuations.  Today's
close was not that impressive as far as I am concerned.  The pattern we
observed over the past few weeks where the market would constantly come
back on the close is fading into the sunset.  In other words, the market appears
to be running out of steam.  That's not to say we can't see some buying in here
and even a higher close tomorrow, but I would be looking for placing to sell
now in anticipation of more failures.

1/12/98    Yesterday's S&P Update:

We closed 1251.10 today in the S&P, basically holding
the 1252 area of support.   Prices did get under 1252 today, but we came back some
on the close and managed to close off the lows of 1246.  Very difficult market to
call in here.  We are right on the edge of breaking out to the downside, yet at this point,
not enough damage has been established to call this anything more than a pull back in
an on-going bull trend. Tomorrow is a key critical day. The third day of a "correction"
in a bull trend.  If the bull trend is going to continue short term, we should see some
strength tomorrow.  On the other hand,  if the market is going to fall apart,  that could
happen tomorrow as well.  The 18 DMA is right under us at 1239, that is the next key
area of support.  Below that is the 45 DMA of 1199.   If the market gets into a rally mode,
we could see a move all the way back up to 1274 (Monday's close) in the March S&P.


[SP] S&P - The market is likely entering a choppy phase now.

Longer term we know the market is becoming very over-extended.  The commercials
have exited most longs they purchased in October.  The currently rally is certainly
becoming vulnerable,  however, it is not time to try to be a hero and pick any tops...
but it may be getting close to that.  The trend remains up and we must work with that
A close under the 18 DMA of 1239 would end the short term bull trend, at least temporarily.


Current High Risk Positions:  I'll be watching the market closely tomorrow.   There is the possibility
of a weak Thursday trade.  Very possible and I would be looking for it now and expecting it.

* S&P Trades are for high risk traders only.  This market is extremely risky.  You must
have at least $50,000 excessive risk capital to trade S&P's.  Please be advised that this
market is for experienced investors and traders only.  My opinions, ideas, input and
recommendations should only be used in conjunction with your own money management
system, trading strategies and experience.  If you don't have experience day trading
stock index futures, then the S&P is not for you!
                    



INTEREST RATES:  

[US] T-BONDS -  I am looking for more strength in T-bonds,  If the stock market becomes
unstable, I believe you have to expect money to pour into bonds and that should fuel a rally.  

[TB] T-BILLS - Watch the Ted spread in here.  Long T-bills & short Eurodollars.

[ED] EURODOLLARS -  Tbills lost a 2 points over Eurodollars today.

ENERGY MARKETS: Big pull backs continue as the CRB falls sharply for
the 2nd day in a row.

[CL] CRUDE OIL -  I think we will see Crude stabilize in here now and possibly move a little higher short term.
Swing traders - I would not be short any longer.

[HO] HEATING OIL - Basically we pulled back to the 18DMA and that is where
I expect the market to find support short term. 

[HU] UNLEADED GAS - Here also we have made nice pull backs and flushing out all the weak longs.
We may have another opportunity to get long these markets perhaps next week.

[NG] NATURAL GAS -  Nothing in natural gas for right now.

METALS: Copper is holding up well.   We are long this market.

[GC] GOLD -  Look for this market to chop around the 18 DMA. 

[SI] SILVER -  Silver prices pulled back today but they snapped right back and closed near the highs. 
This market acts like it wants to move higher down the road.

[HG] COPPER - We are long.  We need to see this market make a run at 68.00.  Perhaps tomorrow it will...

[PL] PLATINUM - Nothing here for us.

[PA] PALLADIUM -  Nothing here for us.



GRAINS: This entire complex has been very weak.  I'd be looking for a relief rally soon.

[S] SOYBEANS -  I'd probably look for a little recovery in here.

[SM] SOYBEAN MEAL - Same in bean meal.

[SO] SOYBEAN OIL -  I still like bean oil, and in fact if you wanted to spread bean meal and oil
you could do that.

CRUSH SPREAD - I believe selling meal and buying oil is an appropriate spread at this time. 

[C] CORN -  Nothing in corn short term.

[W] WHEAT - Nothing in wheat short term.


[O] OATS - n/a


LIVESTOCK:

[LH] LEAN HOGS -  We talked about hogs already, look for more weakness there.

[PB] PORK BELLIES - I wouldn't be surprise to see this market pull back in here as well.

[FC] FEEDER CATTLE -  Pull back likely.

[LC] LIVE CATTLE - I think a pull back in LC is in the cards now as well.  


SOFTS:  Looking for sugar, cotton & coffee to move lower. Cocoa higher.

[SB] SUGAR -  I am looking for A PULL BACK in sugar.

[CC] COCOA - I still like cocoa and I believe we are close to a bottom in this market.

[KC] COFFEE -  You may have sold coffee at 118, if you did you should still be short, your stop was 123
and today's high was only 122 so you would still be short if you used that stop.  I like this market on the short side.

[CT] COTTON -  Cotton made new lows today and that is telling us that some commodities (cotton) are
still moving lower.   However, we did not close on the lows and it still appears to me that we are close to
a bottom in cotton. 

[JO] ORANGE JUICE -  Looking for lower OJ prices short term.

[LB] LUMBER - Nothing in Lumber short term.


CURRENCIES:  More big action in the currencies.  

[CD] CANADIAN DOLLAR - Looking lower short term.

[BP] BRITISH POUND -  Nothing in the pound for now. 

[SF] SWISS FRANC - Look for the SF to move higher short term.  No low risk opportunities now.

[DM] DEUTSCHE MARK -  Look for the DM to move higher short term now as well.   Nothing low risk.

[JY] JAPANESE YEN -  Well, we were looking for a failure and gee whiz, today we got a big one in the Yen.
The trend in the Yen is now down and you want to be selling additional weakness.  

[AD] AUSSIE DOLLAR -  Nothing

[DX] US DOLLAR - Dollar is choppy in here now. 

[CR] CRB INDEX -  Another sharp sell off in the CRB.  This is starting to indicate lower commodity
prices down the road, you may want to consider taking appropriate measures should we see additional
weakness tomorrow.  On the other hand, if we close higher tomorrow, we may still be in the process
of bottoming.  Keep in mind that we can make money shorting the CRB, and if commodities are
going to weaken again in 1999, we will want to consider short positions in the CRB.   The margin in the
CRB is a very reasonable $1300 and last year a short positions in the CRB yielded $20,000 per contract
from April through December.
.

* Remember never to risk more than 10% of your risk capital on any one single trade.  
We must never adjust the stop to accommodate the 10% risk.  The stop needs to be placed
strategically based on the market, and the market alone, not what you can afford to lose.
I can't stress the importance of this enough.   Once the stop point is determined, the risk
can be calculated.  If the risk is to large, pass on the trade and wait patiently for a lower risk trade. 

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Futures trading is NOT my only means of income.  I also invest in stocks, real estate as well as 
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Very Respectfully,
Floyd W. Upperman Jr.

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